A US-China science pact has expired after 45 years. How is the world poorer for it?
Signed in 1979, a landmark scientific cooperation treaty between the US and China has endured the ups and downs of the bilateral relationship for 45 years - until now. Can both sides rebalance the equation and find a way forward?
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SINGAPORE: A scientific slowdown - not just between the United States and China, but the wider world - is on the cards, warn analysts, as the two superpowers let a landmark science and technology treaty slip away without renewal for the first time in 45 years.
Climate research and public health are at particular risk from the recent expiry of the longstanding bilateral pact which yielded breakthroughs across the decades, experts note, potentially hurting the global fight against existential threats to humanity.
“These areas rely heavily on international collaboration to address global challenges like climate change and pandemics,” said Associate Professor Jonathan Ping from Bond University, who specialises in China studies.
“The loss of joint efforts could slow progress in developing solutions and sharing critical data,” he told Â鶹´«Ă˝.
Observers believe the agreement’s lapse is likely due to Washington stonewalling negotiations, driven by national security concerns and geopolitical tensions.
Amplifying the already strained situation is the closely-fought US presidential election, they point out, where being perceived as soft on China could cost much-needed votes.Â
Analysts expect meaningful discussions on a possible revival of the pact to only come - if at all - after the dust settles on the Nov 5 poll.
WORKING TOGETHER FOR GOOD
The US-China Science and Technology Agreement (STA) was signed in 1979.
It was the first bilateral pact signed between the two powers after Washington granted full diplomatic recognition to the People’s Republic of China that same year, coming as Beijing enacted sweeping opening-up reforms.
The accord provides crucial access and protections for both American and Chinese researchers participating in joint scientific collaborations, serving as a foundational framework and catalyst for their efforts, said Dr Alejandro Reyes, senior fellow at the Centre on Contemporary China and the World at the University of Hong Kong (HKU).
For example, under the pact, US scientists gain access to valuable data, including in restricted areas like social sciences, as well as large research pools and long-term health studies.
This is meant to allow them to collaborate openly and freely with their Chinese counterparts, especially in sensitive fields, without facing suspicion of data theft or hidden agendas.
Initially focused on fields like agriculture, sectors like space, health and energy have since found their place as the scope of the agreement expands with the times.
An early major achievement under the STA’s umbrella came in 1999. Joint research showed that folic acid consumption by mothers could help prevent certain birth defects in developing embryos.
Another tie-up through the 2000s in the wake of the SARS outbreak contributed to the development of rapid diagnostic tests for influenza strains.
A CATALYST FOR SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS
The US-China bilateral accord has logged various scientific cooperation milestones since coming into force 45 years ago.
A number of them have led to actual change on the ground, benefiting not just both countries, but the rest of the world. Here are some notable examples:
Birth defects study
Launched in 1985 and continuing through the 2000s, it became one of the largest cohort studies globally, involving around 250,000 pregnant women and their babies.
It demonstrated the effectiveness of folic acid in preventing neural tube defects, leading to its widespread inclusion in foods across the US and worldwide, preventing millions of stillbirths and lifelong birth defects.
Tracking influenza
Launched in 2004, the joint project significantly expanded China's flu surveillance network from just a few dozen sites to over 30,000.
The tie-up also enabled China to elevate its laboratory to the status of a World Health Organization coordinating centre.
As a result, global flu monitoring has greatly improved, providing better data for the development of annual flu vaccines and enhancing the world’s ability to detect potential pandemic influenza strains.
Clearing the air
Support from the US Environmental Protection Agency has been pivotal in helping China tackle local air pollution, particularly in reducing harmful PM2.5 particles and emissions from heavy metals like mercury.
Beyond China, the collaboration has also reduced pollution drifting to regions across the Pacific and beyond.
The accord was routinely renewed every five years. But longstanding practice was disrupted last year amid frayed bilateral relations. Both nations could only agree to a six-month extension, with the US State Department stating its intent to “amend and strengthen” the terms of the agreement.
Another six-month extension was agreed on in March this year, which subsequently expired on Aug 27.Â
A spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on Aug 30 that "both sides remain in communication" regarding the expired agreement.
Neither Beijing nor Washington has provided any updates on the progress of the negotiations to date.
The lapsing of such a longstanding pact is “not ideal”, as it creates uncertainty for researchers, Dr Reyes told Â鶹´«Ă˝, pointing to issues like visa restrictions and limited access for scientists travelling between the two countries.
“When participants in a research programme don’t know if they can meet and communicate, it compromises their ability to collaborate effectively.”
HUMANITY FACES “LOSE-LOSE” SITUATION
When asked whether the breakdown in the STA would hit the US or China harder, analysts Â鶹´«Ă˝ spoke to didn’t differentiate.Â
Instead, they unanimously agreed that both sides would experience substantial setbacks in achieving research breakthroughs, cautioning at the same time that overall scientific progress would suffer.
“This is a lose-lose situation for … the entire world, not just China and the US,” said Mr Rahul Pandey, a PhD candidate at Jawaharlal Nehru University with a research focus on Chinese affairs.
He pointed out how innovations over at least the past three centuries - mobile phones, the internet, televisions, cars, aeroplanes and now electric vehicles, for example - have become shared goods, improving life for people all over.
“The scientific advancements made in any country do not serve only that nation; they benefit the entire global community,” Mr Pandey told Â鶹´«Ă˝.
Analysts warn that research into the climate and public health could be particularly hampered by the STA’s termination due to how these fields rely heavily on international cooperation. This in turn could spell trouble for global efforts to tackle climate change and pandemics.
Climate change is already being increasingly felt on multiple fronts, while the latest pandemic - COVID-19 - claimed millions of lives, and experts have warned that future outbreaks of such scale are a matter of when and not if.
On public health, Dr Reyes noted that China, as the world’s second-most populous country with 1.4 billion people, provides a vast population sample size, particularly valuable for research targeting Asian populations.Â
Losing access to this data would significantly impact pharmaceutical companies, which have historically depended on it for clinical trials, he said.
“This could slow down breakthroughs in drug efficacy … without that resource, achieving meaningful results will become far more challenging," Dr Reyes cautioned.
The reality is that the US and China are intertwined in the global economy, “whether we like it or not”, said Dr Roger Pielke, a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and professor at the University of Colorado Boulder.
“While we may want to adjust the terms of this relationship, there is no scenario in which the two countries do not depend on one another,” he told Â鶹´«Ă˝.
The STA’s breakdown could potentially lead to duplication of research efforts too as American and Chinese researchers talk and collaborate less, which could ultimately impede scientific advances, noted Mr Pandey from Jawaharlal Nehru University.
“In contrast, renewing the STA could promote stability and cooperation, facilitating ongoing joint research and data sharing that benefits critical areas such as energy and healthcare,” he emphasised.
RIVALRY AND POLITICS AT PLAY
Analysts note that STAs are a widely used tool in science diplomacy.
The US maintains over 60 STAs with countries worldwide, while a 2021 study showed that China had 52 STAs and 64 other similar agreements with countries around the world.
Amid dozens of similar, routine agreements with other countries, why did the Sino-US pact fall through?
Observers point to the looming US presidential election on Nov 5 and its lead-up over the past year or so as a primary obstacle to renewal. Current US Vice-President Kamala Harris and rival Donald Trump are neck and neck in the race for the top office.Â
While Ms Harris has offered few specifics on her China policy, analysts have said she, if elected, is likely to continue the policies of her predecessor Joe Biden. Meanwhile, Mr Trump has pledged to get tough with tariffs again if elected, raising the spectre of another bruising trade war.
At the same time, many Americans view Beijing negatively. A survey by the Washington DC-based think tank Pew Research Center conducted in April found that for the fifth year in a row, about eight in 10 Americans report an unfavourable view of China.
Analysts say such sentiments, coupled with a divisive political climate, mean the current US leadership has to tread carefully in its actions towards China during the presidential hustings.
“Announcing a renewal (of the STA) at this time could potentially lead to political fallout, arguably benefiting the Republican candidate Donald Trump,” Dr Reyes from HKU explained.
“His camp has been disseminating significant amounts of information undermining the merits of strengthening ties with China, and it’s not difficult to see how that narrative - fair or not - could influence voting decisions.”
Both nations are likely waiting for the election to conclude before making decisions regarding the science pact, said Assoc Prof Ping from Bond University.
“National security concerns surrounding intellectual property and technological advancements remain a significant issue, adding another layer of complexity,” he explained.
The academic and commercial exchanges fuelled by the STA helped China advance its technology and military capabilities over the decades. But the agreement has come under scrutiny in recent years amid growing concerns over Beijing's alleged theft of US scientific and commercial innovations - accusations China has repeatedly rubbished.
While a slowdown is likely, restricting research collaborations is unlikely to significantly hamper an opponent’s progress as completely blocking the transfer of knowledge is all but impossible in this interconnected era, pointed out Dr Reyes, adding that it might lead to an unintended consequence.
“Denying China access to this knowledge might actually enhance its capacity for innovation and creativity, given its extensive resources and flexibility for experimentation - particularly now that it has established a strong foundation for reverse engineering,” said Dr Reyes.
AN ALREADY TROUBLED LANDSCAPE
Even before the STA lapsed, US-China scientific cooperations were already heading towards troubled waters as geopolitical tensions escalated, say analysts.
Dr Reyes said US-China scientific partnerships have generally declined and entered what he described as a "cold-storage period".
Research findings bear this out. The proportion of Sino-American joint publications, relative to US research alone, peaked at 13.9 per cent in 2019 before dropping to 11.7 per cent in 2023, according to a paper published in February this year by Professor Tang Li from the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University.
Similarly, the share of US-China collaborative research compared to all Chinese articles saw a sharp decline, falling from 12.2 per cent in 2017 to 5.7 per cent in 2023.
This overall trend had already been spotlighted in another research paper, co-published in February 2022 by professors at Ohio State University in the US and Yangzhou University in China.
“The drop in China-USA cooperation can be seen beginning in 2019, before the (COVID-19) pandemic ... the patterns suggest that political tensions, more than the pandemic, influenced the drop in China-US cooperation,” the paper stated.Â
A trigger point came in 2018 when the Trump administration in the US launched the so-called China Initiative, say analysts. The programme targeted scientists suspected of connections to Beijing, probing potential breaches of national security related to leaks of sensitive scientific information.
A 2022 study by lawyer and law professor Andrew Chongseh Kim revealed that cases involving Chinese professors under the Economic Espionage Act were more likely to be publicised and met with harsher punishments compared to non-Asians.
The study also found that up to one in three Asian scientists were falsely accused, with charges either being dropped before trial or dismissed by juries and judges due to lack of evidence.
The China Initiative was officially ended by the Biden administration in early 2022. A senior US Justice Department official stated the focus on China had been “too narrow”, and the new approach would be a broader, “threat-driven” strategy targeting Russia, Iran and North Korea as well.
Still, analysts say there has been a lingering impact. HKU’s Dr Reyes told Â鶹´«Ă˝ that based on his interactions with academics in the US and globally, universities over the past two years have been extra careful to avoid running afoul of the law when it comes to collaborations involving Chinese scientists.
“It’s a difficult position for institutions,” he said, “because nearly every field of research could potentially be viewed as a legal risk or repurposed by China for hostile use.”
A study published by the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions in July revealed that the number of Chinese-born scientists leaving the US has surged by 75 per cent since the launch of the China Initiative, with two-thirds of them moving to China.Â
The federal government is the largest single source of funding for basic research in the US. However, the study found that 45 per cent of researchers with federal grants prefer to avoid applying for them.
Among this group, 84 per cent cited concerns about potential legal liability due to errors in forms and disclosures, while 65 per cent expressed worries that their collaborations with Chinese researchers or institutions might place them under suspicion.
BREAKING THE IMPASSE?
Despite escalating geopolitical tensions and competition, experts interviewed by Â鶹´«Ă˝ are optimistic that the world’s two largest economies will be able to find a way forward and renew their science and tech partnership.
“Even during the height of the Cold War, scientific collaborations between the US and the Soviet Union continued unabated. Many in the scientific community believe that competition and cooperation can coexist and overcome differences,” noted Mr Pandey from Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Observers say breaking the impasse boils down to the political will of the US and China’s’ top leadership.
Dr Pielke highlighted the intricate complexities surrounding academic exchanges, particularly relating to technology transfer, industrial competition, intellectual property, and trade.
“These issues are well above the pay grade of the scientific community and will require the engagement of the nations’ leaders,” he said.
Assoc Prof Ping proposed several measures for fostering US-China collaboration amid the deadlock.Â
He suggested establishing neutral platforms through international organisations to mediate and facilitate joint projects, focusing on global challenges like climate change and public health where cooperation can yield mutual benefits.
“(There should) also be increased transparency by implementing clear guidelines to protect intellectual property and ensure data reciprocity,” he added.
Whether both sides manage to iron out the kinks in the way of the STA, analysts stress that what’s most important is maintaining dialogue to resolve differences.
“It is best that we keep talking. Science and technology agreements are low-hanging diplomatic fruit, by design. We should remember that,” Dr Pielke remarked.
