Commentary: A return to political chaos? The Philippines’ impeachment saga
Vice President Sara Duterte’s upcoming impeachment trial will have a major impact on whether political stability in the Philippines is upended or maintained, says this academic.
MANILA: The Philippines entered an impeachment cycle when the House of Representatives successfully impeached Vice President Sara Duterte. This sets the stage for the Senate to preside over a polarising trial possibly by this July.
According to the 1987 Constitution (Article IX, Section 3), the removal of any vice president from office needs at least a two-thirds majority vote from Senate members. This is the first time a sitting vice president has been impeached in the country’s tumultuous political history.
It is the latest episode in the bitter rivalry of the erstwhile allied Marcos and Duterte dynasties, the culmination of previous skirmishes, where their differences included irreconcilable policy clashes, a protracted Congressional hearing exposing Sara Duterte’s office’s alleged questionable use of public funds, and a war of words between President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr and former President Rodrigo Duterte – Sara’s father – in an exchange of drug addiction allegations.
The straw that broke the camel’s back was the vice president’s shocking revelation that she had hired an assassin for the president, the first lady, and the House of Representatives’ Speaker (a first cousin of the president).
THE IMPEACHMENT
While civil society organisations filed the first impeachment complaints in December 2024, the House supermajority led by the Speaker delayed their own complaint until the last day before Congress recessed.
The latter’s version, endorsed by 240 of 310 members, impeached Sara Duterte for the “culpable violation” of the Constitution, graft and corruption, other “high crimes” and betrayal of public trust. A separate indictment, the alleged misuse of millions of pesos in confidential and intelligence funds, was exposed in multiple congressional hearings last year.
Rather than immediately start the trial on the vice president’s impeachment, the Senate has decided to bide its time. Senate President Francis Escudero said that her trial could not start until the chamber formally resumes its session on Jun 2.
With little opposition to the delay, there seems to be some consensus among senators that the trial will likely begin after the opening of the new Congress in July.
In the meantime, the Supreme Court has been dragged into the impeachment process. There was a separate petition filed by a lawyer seeking to compel the Senate to commence the trial and another – filed by Sara Duterte’s lawyers – to nullify the impeachment.
POLITICAL MOTIVATIONS TO DELAY THE TRIAL
The political motivations to delay the trial are clear for some senators. Seven are running for re-election in the May midterm elections. The trial, which could last for months, will distract them and the country from their electoral campaigns.
As the senatorial elections are an extremely competitive race, for some candidates including celebrities and political scions, the worry is that an impeachment trial may harm their re-election chances if the electorate views them as lacking in legal expertise or knowledge (and thus unqualified to render judgment on Sara Duterte).
The legislative allies of Marcos Jr and a genuine opposition of politicians and pro-democratic civil society organisations now find themselves in the same political boat seeking the vice president’s conviction to hold her accountable.
However, Sara Duterte’s defenders believe that the first group’s ulterior motive is to prevent her from running for the presidency in 2028, as Marcos Jr is limited to a single six-year presidential term. Constitutionally speaking, a conviction verdict can mean that Sara Duterte is perpetually barred from holding any office.
Current polls indicate that Sara Duterte remains the strongest presidential contender in 2028 (she is the choice of just under a third of respondents surveyed). Therefore, her supporters see the impeachment trial as less of a serious drive to hold power to account but more of a means to stymie the Duterte dynasty’s return to the peak of Philippine politics.
Another Duterte presidency in 2028 will pose a direct existential threat to the Marcoses and their allies.
Democratic forces seem caught in a quandary given the Marcos-Duterte clans’ polarisation. Politicians and activists seem unable to differentiate their own positions from either the Marcos or Duterte camps’ since the break-up of the dynasties’ short-lived alliance.
LUKEWARM PUBLIC OPINION
Another factor is lukewarm public opinion on the impeachment. A February survey with 1,800 respondents reported no majority support for Sara Duterte’s impeachment – 47 per cent disagreed with it, while only 33 per cent agreed.
Perhaps Filipinos do not view the impeachment saga as significant. There are more important public concerns such as eradicating poverty and inflation.
The last significant impeachment of either a president or vice president of the Philippines was when Joseph Estrada was impeached in 2000. This led to an aborted trial and his eventual extraordinary ouster via people power.
For almost a decade thereafter, the county’s democratic regime fell into a downward spiral of instability that featured failed coups, protests, and more impeachment attempts. The political impasse resulted in economic stagnation and the decay of democratic institutions.
If past can be considered prologue, then there are indications that the Philippines’ ruling elites might blunder into a return to political chaos if Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial proves to be more of a circus of warring elites than a genuine, ethical campaign to hold her accountable.
Dr Aries A Arugay is a Visiting Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the Philippine Studies Programme at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. This commentary on the Institute’s blog, Fulcrum.
